Michigan State
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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RankNameGradeRating
51  Sherod Hardt SR 31:35
75  Ryan Robinson SO 31:45
173  Jesse Hersha FR 32:08
185  Clark Ruiz SR 32:10
243  Morgan Beadlescomb FR 32:21
284  Matthew Thomas FR 32:26
303  Nick Soter SR 32:31
354  Max Benoit JR 32:38
374  Daniel Sims SO 32:41
416  Brian Kettle SO 32:45
558  Nathan Burnand JR 33:01
802  Justine Kiprotich SO 33:28
1,072  Andrew Middelton JR 33:50
2,332  Ryan Beyea SR 35:51
National Rank #20 of 312
Great Lakes Region Rank #2 of 31
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 95.3%
Most Likely Finish 18th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.5%
Top 10 at Nationals 7.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 59.9%


Regional Champion 18.2%
Top 5 in Regional 99.5%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Sherod Hardt Ryan Robinson Jesse Hersha Clark Ruiz Morgan Beadlescomb Matthew Thomas Nick Soter Max Benoit Daniel Sims Brian Kettle Nathan Burnand
MSU Spartan Invitational 09/16 648 32:01 32:02 32:07 32:07 33:15 32:25 33:08 32:31 32:32
Roy Griak Invitational 09/24 468 31:31 31:10 31:55 32:21 32:59 32:09 32:26 32:16 32:44 33:53
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational (B Race) 10/14 998 32:30 32:44 33:01 32:57
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 627 31:32 32:04 32:15 32:18 32:22 32:52
Big 10 Championship 10/30 492 31:31 31:46 32:11 31:58 32:00 32:42 32:08 32:45 32:19
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/11 512 31:29 31:45 32:22 31:46 32:31 32:11 32:36





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 95.3% 18.5 470 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.2 2.2 2.6 2.8 4.4 4.4 5.0 5.6 5.7 5.6 7.1 5.6 6.2 5.4 4.9 4.7 5.2 4.7 3.6 2.9 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.3
Region Championship 100% 2.7 80 18.2 31.5 24.8 18.3 6.7 0.6



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sherod Hardt 98.4% 56.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2
Ryan Robinson 96.6% 77.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.5
Jesse Hersha 95.4% 134.3
Clark Ruiz 95.3% 142.3
Morgan Beadlescomb 95.3% 169.3
Matthew Thomas 95.3% 181.4
Nick Soter 95.3% 189.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sherod Hardt 4.6 9.0 15.8 11.9 8.7 7.8 6.2 5.1 4.2 4.0 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.9 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5
Ryan Robinson 7.5 1.9 5.7 8.1 8.6 8.4 8.2 6.0 5.9 5.6 4.4 4.2 4.2 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.0
Jesse Hersha 18.3 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.2 3.3 4.7 3.7 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.7 3.9 4.3 4.5 3.0 3.1 3.6 3.2 3.6 3.4 2.3
Clark Ruiz 19.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.9 3.0 3.1 4.5 4.1 3.4 3.9 4.8 4.9 3.9 4.9 4.1 3.9 2.7 3.3 3.0 3.1 2.9
Morgan Beadlescomb 25.7 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.8 5.1 3.9 3.6 3.7
Matthew Thomas 29.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.0 2.8 4.1 3.4 3.3 4.3 4.1
Nick Soter 32.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.6 2.5 2.7 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 18.2% 100.0% 18.2 18.2 1
2 31.5% 100.0% 31.5 31.5 2
3 24.8% 99.2% 0.8 1.4 3.1 2.7 2.0 2.4 3.1 3.0 1.4 1.9 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.2 24.6 3
4 18.3% 97.5% 0.3 0.5 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.0 2.0 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.2 0.4 17.9 4
5 6.7% 47.8% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 3.5 3.2 5
6 0.6% 0.6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
Total 100% 95.3% 18.2 31.5 0.8 1.7 3.6 4.7 4.1 3.8 4.4 5.1 3.3 4.2 4.4 3.0 2.9 4.7 49.7 45.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
UCLA 95.5% 1.0 1.0
Colorado St. 85.2% 1.0 0.9
Eastern Kentucky 82.3% 1.0 0.8
North Carolina St. 81.2% 1.0 0.8
Providence 78.3% 1.0 0.8
Southern Utah 71.5% 1.0 0.7
Michigan 66.4% 1.0 0.7
Princeton 43.8% 1.0 0.4
Texas A&M 43.0% 1.0 0.4
Eastern Michigan 42.4% 1.0 0.4
Navy 38.0% 1.0 0.4
Penn 36.5% 1.0 0.4
Illinois 32.4% 3.0 1.0
Indiana 23.1% 1.0 0.2
Florida State 14.8% 1.0 0.1
Minnesota 8.2% 3.0 0.2
Furman 4.4% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 1.7% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.5% 2.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 9.3
Minimum 4.0
Maximum 16.0